The Updated Photovoltaic Trend 2021
According to data from the National Energy Administration, from January to September 2020, the national photovoltaic power generation capacity was 200.5 billion kWh, an increase of 16.9% year-on-year; the national average photovoltaic utilization hours were 916 hours, an increase of 6 hours year-on-year; areas with higher average utilization hours It is 1,141 hours in Northeast China and 1,010 hours in North China, including 1,264 hours in Mengxi, 1,240 hours in Mengdong, and 1,170 hours in Heilongjiang.
In the first three quarters, 18.7 million kilowatts of installed photovoltaic power nationwide, of which 10.04 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power plants and 8.66 million kilowatts of distributed photovoltaics. As of the end of September 2020, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation was 223 million kilowatts. From the perspective of the new installed capacity layout, the newly installed capacity in North China is 8 million kilowatts, the northeast area is 1.27 million kilowatts, the northwest area is 1.97 million kilowatts, the east China area is 3.5 million kilowatts, and the central China area is newly installed. The total installed capacity was 2.04 million kilowatts, with 1.93 million kilowatts of new installed capacity in South China.
Due to the continuous emergence of photovoltaic power generation technology innovations and the continuous reduction of photovoltaic product costs, parity grid access is just around the corner in most countries and regions around the world. Photovoltaic power generation has become an important energy structure reform direction for all countries. It is reported that in 2021, domestic photovoltaic will officially enter the stage of parity grid, and the scale of the industry will continue to expand. According to forecasts, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in China is expected to reach 55GW in 2021 and 65GW by 2022.
The photovoltaic industry is a sunrise industry based on semiconductor technology and new energy demand. It is the commanding height of global advanced industry competition in the future. my country has issued corresponding industrial support policies to support the development of the domestic photovoltaic industry. The future development prospects of the industry are promising, and the development trends are as follows:
(1) Access to the Internet at a low price is accelerating
According to the analysis of the photovoltaic development roadmap released by the Chinese Renewable Energy Society, with policy support and technological progress, my country’s photovoltaic power generation industry has grown rapidly, with cost reductions and product upgrades accelerating. From 2007 to 2017, photovoltaic power generation per kilowatt-hour The cumulative cost has dropped by about 90%, and photovoltaic power generation is expected to achieve parity on the grid around 2020. At present, the power consumption side can achieve parity in some regions. In January 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the “Notice on Actively Promoting the Work Related to the Unsubsidy and Parity of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation” to promote wind power and photovoltaic power generation. With the construction of low-cost grid-connected projects and low-cost grid-connected pilot projects, it is expected that the time for the full realization of parity on the power generation side will be advanced. By then, photovoltaic power generation will no longer require state subsidies and the industry will enter the consumer market from the traditional energy market.
(2) Continuous improvement of product performance
Technological progress will continue to be the theme of the development of the photovoltaic industry. It is expected that the conversion efficiency of mainstream high-efficiency polycrystalline silicon cells in industrial production will exceed 20%, monocrystalline silicon cells are expected to reach 22.5%-23%, and the power of mainstream module products will reach 285W and 320W, respectively. Continuous advancement of monocrystalline continuous feeding production technology and large-capacity ingot casting technology; polycrystalline silicon wafer diamond wire cutting application scope will be further expanded to 30%, monocrystalline silicon wafers will complete the replacement of diamond wire cutting; PERC battery, N-type battery scale The production capacity is further improved; the application scope of advanced packaging technologies such as component laminations and half-chips will also be further expanded.
(3) Rapid development of distributed photovoltaic
Distributed photovoltaics have the advantages of flexible installation, low investment, and convenience for nearby consumption. They help solve the problem of inconsistency between power generation and load in our country, and at the same time greatly reduce transmission losses, reduce dependence on large power grids, and ease the investment pressure on power grids. my country’s “13th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development” and “13th Five-Year Plan for Solar Energy Development” propose to optimize the layout of solar energy development and give priority to the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation. It is planned that by the end of 2020, my country’s distributed photovoltaic power generation will account for 55 %about.